The Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, has said that Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, the national leader of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), will remain a local champion unless he forms an alliance with either the All Progressives Congress (APC) or the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
Minister Keyamo’s remarks come amid the recent defection of the Kano State Governor, Abba Kabir Yusuf, from the party.
Keyamo expressed admiration for Kwankwaso; however, he argued that the NNPP leader appears to have boxed himself into one of the tightest corners of his political career due to his refusal to accept the “olive branch” offered to him by the APC much earlier.
“Kwankwaso wants to be President, but none of the major political parties will pick him as a candidate in 2027. APC and PDP are going South and ADC’s ticket is Atiku’s to lose. Atiku is the owner of ADC. Only a major political party can win a presidential election in Nigeria. NNPP is still a one-state party and with the recent wave of defections from NNPP (including the Governor himself), it is doubtful if it can maintain its grip on Kano in 2027. A leader is only as strong as his devoted lieutenants,” he asserted.
According to him, Kwankwaso will not support a Northern candidate because doing so would end his own presidential ambition, as he may have to wait another 16 years after 2027 for a chance at the presidency.
“8 likely years for the Northern candidate and another 8 likely years when it rotates to the South again. That’s a gamble he will not take. He will be 86 years old by then. So, this entirely rules out an Atiku-Kwankwaso cooperation in 2027,” Minister Keyamo stated.
He reiterated that the only pathway for Kwankwaso lies in 2031, explaining that the alliance he builds in 2027 will be crucial to his ambitions in 2031. “If his grip on Kano slips in 2027, it will water down his clout and influence in 2031 to be handed a presidential ticket by any of the major political parties. This is the time he can cash in on his presumed dominance of Kano politics and take a chance.”
He stressed that Kwankwaso’s only realistic option for an alliance with a major political party is narrowed down to the PDP, the APC, or the Labour Party — but only if Peter Obi returns to the LP, picks the 2027 presidential ticket, and Kwankwaso agrees to run as his vice-presidential candidate.
However, the Minister noted that all three options present their own challenges, saying with the PDP now gasping for breath, it may be easier for Kwankwaso to return to the party on certain terms, such as taking over the entire party structure in Kano and some North West States and returning Kano to the PDP.
“And that will signal the death of NNPP. But with the zoning of the presidential ticket to the South, that would mean a suspension of his 2027 presidential ambition till 2031,” he said.
Keyamo also pointed out that if Kwankwaso decides to pitch his tent with the APC, he would be in no position to dictate terms to the party. He emphasised that with the exodus of key figures from NNPP to the APC in Kano, the APC’s structure in the state is now better positioned to challenge the NNPP in 2027.
He disclosed that the APC is not desperate for Kwankwaso in Kano but would be glad to welcome him into the party.
“He still remains an asset,” the Minister acknowledged. “But one thing is sure: the APC cannot throw its entire structure in Kano under the bus for a Kwankwaso, especially with the Governor parting ways with him.” He equally mentioned that the attraction of the APC for Kwankwaso lies in the party’s national spread and structures, which could help retain power in 2031.
Minister Keyamo added: “So, an APC option for Kwankwaso will also mean a suspension of his presidential ambition till 2031.”
He further emphasised that the 2027 Labour Party option for Kwankwaso is even narrower because he cannot and will not run as a vice-presidential candidate to Peter Obi. “His own people will not even support him to give a likely fresh 8 years to the South.”
Keyamo warned that given these scenarios, Kwankwaso is at a difficult political crossroads, arguing that the decision he makes now could either permanently retire him from politics or revive his presidential ambition.
“But one fact is clear: just like late Buhari and the CPC, without a handshake with another major party, he will remain a local champion with his NNPP, but that too may soon vanish with the present predicament of the party in Kano,” he added.
