Nigeria’s aviation sector is facing a deepening crisis as domestic airlines grapple with what industry stakeholders describe as a “catastrophic distortion” in the price of aviation fuel, pushing operating costs to unsustainable levels and raising fears of an imminent shutdown of flight operations.
Airline Operators of Nigeria (AON) have renewed calls on the Federal Government to urgently intervene, warning that the persistent spike in the price of Jet A1 fuel could cripple the industry if left unchecked. The operators are seeking waivers and policy support to cushion the impact and keep aircraft in the skies.
Aviation expert and President of the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association, Dr. Alex Nwuba, in a detailed analysis, quantified the scale of the crisis, revealing that Nigerian airlines may have overpaid more than ₦150 billion on aviation fuel within a three-month period.
According to him, Nigeria consumes about 14,100 barrels of jet fuel daily, translating to approximately 2.24 million litres required to sustain domestic airline operations, routes and jobs.
He explained that while global fuel pricing trends showed a moderate increase from about ₦860–₦940 per litre in February to around ₦1,559 per litre by mid-April, local prices surged disproportionately.
Nigeria’s Jet A1 prices, he noted, rose sharply from about ₦900 per litre in February to between ₦3,000 and ₦3,300 per litre in April.
“That is not a market adjustment. That is a rupture,” Nwuba stated.
He further broke down the implications, noting that by March, airlines were already overpaying between ₦500 and ₦700 per litre, amounting to an excess cost of between ₦1.1 billion and ₦1.5 billion daily.
“By April, the gap widened significantly to between ₦1,400 and ₦1,700 per litre, translating to ₦3.1 billion to ₦3.8 billion in daily overpayments,” he said.
Projecting the figures across the February to April period, Nwuba said even conservative estimates show that airlines incurred excess fuel costs exceeding ₦150 billion.
“This is not a theoretical loss. This is money that left their accounts. Money that could have gone to salaries, maintenance, safety, fleet renewal, and expansion,” he added.
He warned that the magnitude of the financial strain is comparable to national budgetary allocations, stressing that the aviation sector has effectively absorbed, within three months, a shock equivalent to what the Federal Government allocates to some ministries annually.
“In other words, no industry can survive that. No private investor can withstand that. No airline can continue to operate under that kind of pressure without breaking,” Nwuba declared.
Industry operators say the consequences are already unfolding, with rising ticket prices, reduced flight frequencies and mounting operational pressures across airlines.
The AON has repeatedly cautioned that without immediate government intervention including fiscal reliefs and pricing stabilisation mechanisms, operators may be forced to suspend services.
Stakeholders warn that such a shutdown would have far-reaching implications for national connectivity, trade, tourism and employment, potentially grounding economic activities dependent on air transport.
Nwuba emphasised that the crisis goes beyond technical market dynamics, describing it as a national emergency with existential implications for the sector.
“₦150 billion is not just a number. It is the difference between survival and collapse. It is the difference between connectivity and isolation, between a functioning aviation ecosystem and a grounded nation,” he said.
As pressure mounts, attention is now on the Federal Government to respond swiftly to avert what industry players fear could become one of the most severe disruptions in Nigeria’s aviation history.
